Is the World Ready for Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Engines in Commercial Vehicles? Check Details

The commercial vehicle sector is under unprecedented pressure to decarbonize. Hydrogen fuel-cell engines, which convert hydrogen into electricity to power vehicles, are emerging as a legitimate solution. For heavy-duty and long-haul trucking, hydrogen offers several advantages: faster refueling, longer ranges and minimal payload loss. Yet, its wider adoption will depend on three key factors: cost, infrastructure and scale.

The Current Market Landscape

Fuel-cell commercial vehicles are still a niche, but they are growing fast. In June 2024, the global stock of fuel-cell trucks surpassed 12,000 units and around 95% of them were concentrated in China. The global network of hydrogen refueling stations reached 1,218 units by the end of 2023 across 28 countries, though many of these stations generally serve light vehicles or demonstration projects.

Market forecasts indicate significant growth: the fuel-cell commercial vehicle market is valued at around $1.41 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $5.03 billion by 2030. Hydrogen trucks alone are projected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2024 to $10.8 billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of nearly 17%. Heavy-duty trucks make up more than half of these forecasts.

Why Hydrogen Makes Sense for Commercial Fleets

Hydrogen fuel-cell trucks perform well in heavy-duty operations. They can cover over 600 km per fill and will be able to refuel in about 10 minutes, significantly faster compared with battery-electric trucks. Hydrogen also allows fleets to retain full payloads, unlike batteries that add weight and reduce cargo capacity.

By placing infrastructure strategically along freight corridors, fleet operators will be able to plan depot-based refueling. Hydrogen becomes particularly compelling for companies that operate predictable, long-haul routes.

Adoption Challenges

Despite the advantages, various challenges exist for this:

• Infrastructure Gap: There are over 1,200 stations, but very few have dedicated refueling points for heavy-duty trucks.

• High Costs: Fuel-cell systems remain expensive; cost targets are around $80/kW to make hydrogen trucks economically competitive. And production, storage, and distribution of hydrogen are still at a price premium compared to diesel or battery-electric options.
• Market Concentration: China dominates the segment, accounting for the majority of fuel-cell trucks, buses, and medium-duty vehicles. Europe and the U.S. lag, with only a few hundred trucks deployed by mid-2024.

• Competition from Battery Electric: Hydrogen's market share could be capped initially by faster scaling of battery-electric trucks in urban and short-haul operations.

• Regulatory Alignment: Its adoption mandates coordinated policy support, subsidy, and fleet mandates to offset the high upfront cost and incentivize wide infrastructure development.

Regional Dynamics

China is at the forefront, with over 95% of the world's fuel-cell trucks. Europe is gradually scaling up: from around 135 trucks at the end of 2022 to 350 by mid-2024. The U.S. is still in early adoption, with about 170 units. The emerging markets like India are mainly in trial phases, testing feasibility on limited routes.

The Road Ahead

The commercial vehicle sector is only partially ready for hydrogen fuel-cell engines. First to benefit will be heavy-duty fleets with fixed routes, while lighter-duty operations may continue to favor battery-electric trucks. Success will depend upon a few key factors:

• Expansion of the infrastructure for refueling hydrogen along major freight corridors.

• Reduction in vehicle and fuel-cell cost by way of scale and technology standardization.

• Early adoption by fleet operators willing to deploy on predictable, long-haul routes.

• Supportive policies and incentives which align economic and environmental objectives.

Projections are that hydrogen trucks could make up 10% of commercial fleet sales by as early as 2030 and 35% by 2050, indicating long-term potential for the sector.

Conclusion

Hydrogen fuel-cell engines create a strong case for decarbonization in commercial vehicles, especially in heavy-duty, high-utilization segments. Wider adoption will depend on infrastructure development, cost reductions, and regulatory support. The technology shows great promise, but how fast hydrogen trucks can move from niche tests to the mainstream fleet depends on prudent planning and strategic investment.

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