Crisil Projects 8–10% Revenue Growth for Fleet Operators This Fiscal 

CRISIL Ratings expects domestic commercial fleet operators to log a revenue growth of 8-10 per cent this fiscal. This would be against the back of a 12-13 per cent CAGR seen over the four years through fiscal 2025.

The report underscores the fact that domestic consumption continues to be the main growth driver.  An analysis of 40 fleet operators, representing around a quarter of the industry’s revenues, points out that 65‑70 % of their revenue comes from the domestic operations, while the rest is contributed by export‑import traffic. Fleet utilisation is set to increase to 86‑87 % this year against 85 % last year.

CRISIL notes that margins will remain stable at about 8.0‑8.5 %, even though operational costs are set to increase. Fuel costs alone account for 43‑45 % of total costs and a regulatory mandate from October 2025 requiring air‑conditioned cabins in new trucks will add further expense. At the same time, a key enabling factor is the Goods and Services Tax cut on commercial vehicles from 28 % to 18 %, which will reduce acquisition cost and support expansion.

Besides, capital spending by fleet operators is seen at around ₹1,200‑1,300 crores this fiscal, about 15 % over the average of the last three fiscals. About 80‑90 % of this capital expenditure is likely to be debt‑funded. Despite higher investment, CRISIL believes credit-profiles will remain healthy, gearing below 0.5 times and interest-coverage above 6.5 times.

CRISIL also points to some risk factors that are still continuing: geopolitical events, interest rate action, volatility in local diesel prices and the US tariffs impacting export-linked demand. All the same, the report mentions that the Government of India's infrastructure drive through initiatives like dedicated freight corridors and multi-model logistics parks is expected to improve fleet efficiencies and turnaround times, partly offsetting the weak export volumes.

For industry participants, this means that fleet operators are well‑positioned to ride the wave of domestic consumption, import‑driven freight growth and regulatory push. At the same time, the outlook for fleet operators' growth in 2025 remains cautiously positive, signaling opportunities for expansion, technological investment and supply-chain optimization.

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