Tata Motors Brings Granular Forecasting to Commercial Vehicles

The auto industry is full of ups and downs. Sometimes demand goes up suddenly and at other times it drops without warning. Add supply chain issues on top, and companies often struggle to plan properly.

To deal with this, Tata Motors has started using a new system in its commercial vehicle (CV) division. This system is based on data and detailed forecasting. The goal is simple: make planning more accurate, cut down guesswork and give both the company and dealers more clarity.

Why Tata Motors Changed Its Forecasting

Earlier, most companies, including Tata Motors, used to make forecasts based on overall trends. While that helped, it was not always reliable. Sudden changes in demand often left dealers with too many or too few vehicles.

According to Anil Sekhar, Head of Salesforce Excellence for Commercial Vehicles at Tata Motors, the company wanted to go deeper into the data. “We now use technology and data to understand demand at a much more detailed level,” he said during the 7th Auto Retail Conclave in Delhi.

How the New System Works

The new system gives dealers a bigger role in planning:

• Dealers share their monthly vehicle requirements in advance. For example, demand for January is shared at the start of December.

• Tata Motors provides them with last month’s sales data and trends to help them make better predictions.

This means the forecasts are not just based on guesswork. They are made by combining real data with dealer experience from the market.

Transitioning away from obsolete practices

Historically, there were automakers who over supplied vehicles to dealers and simply relied on traffic to help them sell them eventually. This resulted in many problems, including inventory back to stock.

Now, given the changed practice, Tata Motors' new system is focusing on better alignment of supply with demand. This will:

• Prevent building additional inventory at the dealership stores.

• Support dealerships in getting vehicles to all customers in a timely manner.

• Keep both dealers and the company more satisfied.

Still Early, But Promising

This new approach is still in the early stage. But Tata Motors is confident it will create a strong link between dealer forecasts, real market demand, and product sales.

In simple words, the company will be able to make vehicles that people actually want, at the right time. This means better planning, smoother operations, and more efficient inventory management.

Why It Matters for the Industry

What Tata Motors is doing is not just useful for the company—it could be a lesson for the whole auto industry. With markets becoming more unpredictable, data-driven and detailed forecasting is the way forward.

By mixing technology, dealer input, and real data, Tata Motors is showing how forecasting can be turned into a science rather than a guessing game.

Conclusion

So, Tata Motors' new forecasting data and systems are all about granularity—looking at the demand as systemically small as possible. The change from gut feelings and rough estimates to data said last year, supply will increase by ~45%, leading experts at Tata to expect growth within that timeframe. The data must be moral and ethical, but it can lead to better outcomes for the company, its dealers and customers.

While still recent, if successful, the model could be replicated in other auto makers as a way of staying strong amidst uncertainty in the world.

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